Finally - a chance to vote.....

 .....at least for most of us Brits.  Those, like me, living outside the UK, for whatever reason, may still face difficulties - but then our non-residence shields us somewhat from the worst of British life in the '20s.  

But the General elecation in Britain, called by a rain-sodden Sunak for July 4 (I assume his spads missed the irony there of the electorate voting for independence from the fragmented and failing Conservative Party on US Independence Day - which goes a long way in showing the mess the party is in: it would never have happened under Churchill or Thatcher or even Major), is not the only election this year.  The Indian election has just returned Modi with a reduced majority in the world's most populous democracy - the voting process took a month to complete.  This weekend sees the EU's Parliamentary election, and of course in November we have a re-run of Trump v Biden in the US.  

Taken indivudually each country involved (all 29 of them) face important decisions that can and probably will have global impact.  Come Christmas, and the world will be a different and quite possibly more dangerous place.  This should concern us all.

Let's start with Britain's General Election, since, despite being an ex-pat for over 20 years, it is still closest to my heart.  I was born and raised English, and in my heart of hearts will remain so for the rest of my life.  A number of people have asked me why, since I no longer live in the country (I've been labelled a traitor more than once, especially during the 2016 Referendum) I still care about what happens in British politics - which I think says more about their stupidity than anything else.  I still have close family living in Kent, not least three out of my five kids and all four of my grandkids, so what happens in the country will directly affect them all, and I cannot ignore that (even if I can do nothing concrete to change anything).  It's what parentage does to you.....  And what I have seen happen over the time of my non-residence quite frankly fills me with anger and despair.

I left the country for work purposes at the turn of the century, and for personal reasons ended up staying abroad ever since.  When I left, the place was buzzing, at the height of Blair's Britain, a well respected global power with a strong economy and a bright future.  Involvement in Bush's invasion of Iraq, potentially illegally (I understand the arguments but remain of the view we had little choice in the matter) put paid to all that, and in my view was the genesis of the now overwhelming mistrust of Britain's political class by the electorate.  A discredited Blair eventually gave way to Brown, who despite being a fine Chancellor was a poor Prime minister, and he was soundly defeated in the 2010 poll that ushered in the Tory-LibDem coalition with the promise of a new, fairer way to govern. It fell apart fairly soon, amid the sort of anti-EU rhetoric and in-fighting that has dogged the country ever since, and thanks to broken promises and weak leadership by Nick Clegg the coalition foundered at the next Election and ushered in a solid Tory administration. The party has been in sole power ever since, and has lost every shred of decency, compassion and understanding of the worries of ordinary electors in the process.

At the root of it lies a still unrepentant rump of MPs who have always been rampantly anti-EU.  This is not new: similar factions forced out both Thatcher and Major (both of whom, though cautious about the UK's relationship with the EU, were committed to working alongside the bloc in most matters, in particular trade and security), and no lleader since has been able to cauterise them in the way Kinnock and, later, Blair neutered Labour's Militant Tendency headbangers.  Instead, the Tory party's own headbangers, ingenuously branding themselves the European Research Group (ERG) were able to flourish and obtain a far louder voice than their numbers or ideals deserved.

Brexit should have appeased them, since their aim of leaving the EU had been met. Instead, they have spent the time since complaining about, and blaming the EU for, the problems Britain faces in trade, its failing economy, underfunded NHS and transport sytem - the list of ills is long - actually made worse by leaving the EU and its associated trade deal, but lacking the moral fibre to admit they were wrong and are really part of the problem. They have looked for something to deflect the public's attention, and have found it in immigration: specifically the illegal immigration by loads of refugees crossing the Channel in small boats after bankrupting themselves to people smugglers.  Instead of attacking the "criminal gangs" the target is rather the boat people themselves, broke, cold, destitute and now demonised.  This election is shaping up to be all about immigration (Reform UK, a nonentity of a party that sprouted out of the Brexit defining UKIP are certainly making it their number one concern) since by stopping the boats, suddenly everything will be sunshine and roses again.  Of course it will not be that at all.

The problem is that over the past forty-odd years, sensible discussion and debate has been abandoned by the political parties, and replaced by soundbites, headline grabbing statements (most of them untrue) that appeal to our lowest instincts.  The Brexit campaign, and subsequent tortuous passage of the legislation through Parliament was founded entirely on untruths and exaggeration.  The Liar In Chief, Boris Johnson, was adept at telling at least one a day, and blaming everyone but himself and his Party for what was patently going wrong.  Is it any wonder that the electorate has lost trust?  No.

The election campaign has been running less than two weeks, and amid various questionable statements and evasive answers from both main parties, the first Big Lie has been uncovered, in the first Leader's debate.  Sunak stated that Labour's policies would mean a tax increase of two thousand pounds for every household, according to a UK Treasury report.  He repeated this claim 11 times over the course of the hour's debate, until a clearly nonplussed Starmer told him the claim was "garbage".  Tory MPs sprang to Sunak's side and repeated the claim ad infinitum.  But the next day a letter from the Chief Secretary to the Treasury (the senior civil servant who runs the place) to Starmer, sent two days prior to the debate, that stated quite clearly that the figure was incorrect, and the result of Tory advisors massaging Treasury figures (i.e. adding their own numbers to make the report look worse) and was in no way the work of any employee of the Treasury department.  In other words, a lie.  Sunak and his minions still deny it, but even pro-Tory publications like the Spectator have pointed out some inaccuracies in Sunak's statement.  A good start, and no doubt further undermining any remote chance the party has of winning.

The latest polling suggests that the Conservatives could end up with as few as 60 seats and be at best the third biggest in Parliament (this from an 80 seat majority a couple of years ago), with a best case position of around 110 seats.  In either case, it's likely several senior figures will lose their seats, and Sunak himself (even if returned to Parliament) will undoubtedly no longer lead the Party.  After the last few years, it is no more than the Party deserves.

And Labour?  This is a strange one, in my view.  In terms of key policies, there aren't too many differences between the Party and the Tories.  There is also some disquiet about Starmer himself: never a charismatic individual and a no more than average public speaker, he has so far failed to reveal exactly who he is or what he stands for.  He has been busily purging the Party of some of its more Left Wing Members, notably the last Leader, Corbyn, but this has not pleased the entire Party membership nor the public at large: they are still labelled, probably wrongly, as a traditional tax-and-spend party on the Left of the political divide: to me they seem more like the Conservative Party circa John Major.  But come July 5th, they will be forming the next government, probably with a landslide victory. 

 

The EU Parliamentary election is a strange one.  For years, as the bloc expanded from half a dozen member states to its present near 30 it has been clear that its governance is not fit for purpose: too complex, too many alliances, and not enough clarity of purpose.  The structure was fine for a small trading bloc, less so for the political partnership it has grown into.  Britain, during its membership, never took the Parliament itself seriously, nor did the press, so the voter turnout was always pitifully low.  One of the things Cameron pledged to do during his term was drive change to this governance, streamlining it and making it more accountable in its decision making, hence more palatble to British voters.  Instead, he brought about Brexit and immediately resigned.  I can't think of a bigger miscalculation by any Prime Minister in my lifetime - I think it even exceeds Blair's Iraq conduct.

The EU parliamentary members are voted in by their countries, with numbers based on the comparative size of the country (so Germany has many more MEPs than say Latvia).  This seems sensible.  Decision making however is more driven by various alliances between parties with similar political beliefs and aims: so in theory Green Party members from Germany would align with Green Party members from the Netherlands, Poland and so on.  The alliances are fluid and change to a degree with every election as countries respond with different MEPs as their own strategic needs change.  This seems less sensible. And certainly more complex and difficult to manage.

The issue this time round is that over the past few years a number of member states have lurched politically away from liberal democracies that historically made up the bulk of the Union toward a more strident Right Wing Populism: examples include Italy, Slovakia, Czechia and Hungary.  Even in Germany the Far Right AfD party (widely considered to be Neo-Nazi) is the second biggest party, and Marine LePen's racist Fronte Nationale has grown in popularity in France.  The spectre here is that after this weekend the alliances in the Parliament could also lurch even further towards the Far Right, making common policy decisions affecting the entire EU much harder to achieve and implement.  A further complication is that a number of the Extreme Right Populist parties - in particular the Hungarian Fidesz of Viktor Orban - are extremely close and supportive of our friendly neighbourhood psycho Vladimir Putin.  

The irony of Right Wing parties, no matter how extreme or otherwise, cosying up to an unreconstituted Communist (hence extreme Left) psychopathic dictator seems to have been lost in the countries who elected them.  The fear here is that Putin can encourage (and probably handsomely reward) them for supporting him in his illegal war against Ukraine and hence undermine both the EU and NATO to his clear advantage.  Poland, formerly run by another Right Wing Populist government and close supporters of Orban and long in dispute with the EU over the rule of law, but still virulently anti-Putin, now has the more moderate, centrist former EU President Donald Tusk as its PM, and he has been campaigning strongly for Europe to strengthen its borders with Russia (and its puppet Belarus) to guard against invasion if Putin wins the Ukraine conflict as a result of the Extreme Right's possible interference.  

He should, know after his face-to-face dealings with Putin during his time in EU office.  The border fence constructed a couple of years ago to keep out illegal migrants (so not a uniquely British problem, no matter what Sunak and Farage and others would have you believe) is being extended to cover the Russian Kaliningrad enclave to the north and the Balltic coast. These are scary times, especially living within less than a couple hours' drive from both borders, as I do.   I hope the rest of the EU takes note and votes to guard its frontiers.

I'm not going to attempt to predict how this election is going to end up: the issues are certainly far more complex and less easy to understand than the simple Conservative v Labour choice at home.  But because of the proximity of my home to a war zone and the very real fears that most Poles have about Putin's post-Ukraine plans (fears that I share), I shall be watching with interest how the make up of the parliament in Brussels changes after this weekend.

Finally, we have the US Presidential Election this coming November.  The antics going on across the pond leave me amazed at the stupidity of some people, and mystified by how a political system limited to two parties that has led the country into being such a divided nation can be held up as a model for anything but chaos.  To this outsider looking in, it looks like every four years (eight maximum: the two-term limit) the country lurches either Left or Right, and the incoming President seems to spend the first couple of weeks of his term issuing Presidential Orders to unwind much of his predecessor's  legislation, before pushing through his own - which in turn will probably be unwound after the next election.  One Administration raises taxes and improves health care benefits for all, the next, favouring "the market", promptly slashes taxes and health care benefits unless they are purchased via expensive insurance policies provided by major companies (and party donors). Or vice versa...  There seems little stability.  If Britain is a divided country with an unfair electoral system (which is true), then America seems a deeply polarized country with a broken political system that is not fit for purpose and questionable as a democracy,

It seems to me that in a democratic society, leadership should be based on ability and the will of the people at the ballot box, not by who has the deepest pockets and able to persuade the most people to give them money, much of which appears to be spent on advertisements, in print, on tv and the internet, slandering political opponents, lying and misrepresenting their opponent's beliefs, policies and achievements while liying about and misrepresenting and grossly exaggerating their own.  It's the politics of hate and division, not hope and compromise, and sadly it is spreading across the Atlantic, certainly to Britain, arguably to the rest of Europe, and this is not a good thing.

This year it will be a run-off between two old men, 80 year old Democrat Joe Biden, the incumbent, and 77 year old Republican Donald Trump, a re-run of the last poll four years ago.  The fact that a new, younger generation of politicans has failed to come through, strong enough to take the parties and the country forward, is itself an indictment of the political system, for both parties.  Trump being on the ballot at all as his party's choice is nothing less than a disgrace: the man is a liar, a fantasist, a dishonest conspiracy theorist, a mysogynist and a convicted felon awaiting sentence for 34 accounting fraud offences.  He also has dozens of other court cases pending and held up in various states thanks to a justice system loaded by him with his supporters in the Supreme Court (so he is also corrupt).  Considering some of the cases relate to unsubstantiated claims of alleged election fraud last time out, and his conduct before and during the so-called Insurgency that attempted to overturn the election result in January 2021 by storming Congress, that resulted in a number of deaths (none of which were attributable to him, he insists) Trump should be nowhere near public office, let alone the Presidency. 

And yet the political system allows a convicted criminal, even one serving jailtime, not only to run for the Presidency but to take office and govern from his cell if he wins.  This is because there is nothing in the Constitution, America's sacred text, to prevent it happening, and this would need amandment to cover the eventuality: one that nobody had ever envisaged happening until this slimeball came along and trampled it underfoot. 

The result of this election could have consequence far beyond America's shores, especially if Trump wins.  He has already said his will be a vengeful Adminstration, so his political opponents will be targetted and his supporters serving time receiving Presidential Pardons as soon as he completes swearing the Oath of Office.  He has announced plans to reform many of the State's institutions to weaken their powers and replace them with rules to obey Presidential edicts - essentially changing governance from a democracy to a dictatorship.  This is essentially what Hitler did during the 1930s and Putin has done (and continues to do) since he took power in Russia.  He has suggested he will withdraw the country from NATO unless every member state immediately abides by his financial demands.  He has also pledged to end the Ukraine War on his fist day in office (presumably by withdrawing all support, financial and military from the country and allowing Russia to take whatever it wants).

Make no mistake he is a deranged individual whose only policy is one of self-aggrandizement. He cares for no-one but Donald Trump.  And yet swathes of the population support him and the Republicsan Party is in thrall to him - they will do whatever he says in order to maintain their grip on power. And dear old Joe and the Democrats seem incapable of countering this movement.  Many people have expressed concern for his health, and wonder openly whether if elected he is fit enough to complete a four year term of office - a reasonable point that begs the question, then why did you not find a younger candidate instead of abiding by convention and allowing the incumbent an automatic nomination?  Especially given the likely opponent!

I sincerely hope enough Americans come to their senses and vote for Biden.  Whatever his age and frailty, he is a decent man and has spent a lifetime of public office serving the American people.  I hope too the Republican Party re-discovers its conscience and blocks Trump's candidacy, but I fear Hell will freeze over before that happens.....

So here we are, well into what could be a momentous political year.  How it will all play out is open to debate and certainly impossible to predict. I try not to worry, not to lose any sleep over any of it - but I can't help it.  Without a vote there is absolutely nothing I can do to change anything (not that a single vote ever does, even in the closest poll).  

But, no question, these are dangerous times.