Here we go again - Wave 2

There are so many doubters still about this coronavirus pandemic, even after 10 months of unrelenting spread.  Many of them are in positions of power, and what could loosely be termed "populist politicians".  Think Boris Johnson, the darling of the Brexiteers.  Jaire Bolsonaro, the Brazilian strongman who has kept the economy open while the death count climbs to the second highest in the world.  Behind the US, where Donald Trump is the epitome of the populist politician, which is to say he is a loudmouthed, narcissistic incompetent whose primary concern is himself not his electorate (especially that portion that voted for someone else.  Here's another link between the Three Amigos: they have all caught the virus and been hospitalised, but have not changed their sceptic views one iota.  Perhaps that's because all three are also conspiracy theorists and proven liars.

There are others: Jaroslaw Kaczynski in Poland, where the initial lockdown was quite successful in keeping the numbers of infections and deaths very low for the size of the population.  The economy was re-opened, with many restrictions (masking, social distancing etc) still in force but poorly enforced.  Numbers are now going through the roof.  Narendra Modi in India - a similar story, compounded by questionable record keeping that means that probably many more people have been infected and/or died but simply not identified in poverty stricken rural communities.  The list goes on.

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But the point is, contrary to all the optimistic statements about "turning the corner" coming out of the White House and Number 10, about vaccines being available any time now (Putin has signed off on two in Russia already, despite neither being adequately tested - on not much more than 1000 "volunteers", all of them in the Red Army - oh, and his daughter), this virus has NOT gone away.  Nor will it.  Viruses tend to stick around forever.  Think measles, mumps, the common cold, various flu's.  Polio. Diphtheria.  They've all been killers in the past, and still are in impoverished areas around the globe.  We've learned to live with them, with the help of innoculations of vaccines developed over periods of often several years - and in the cases of flu vaccines requiring an annual top up.  I have no doubt that Covid will be the same, with us for the foreseeable future.

The problem is that Covid is much more virulent than the flu virus.  I know people die of the flu every year, even in so-called developed countries.  They still are.  But those deaths tend to occur during the autumn and winter each year, the "flu season", and no doubt they will do so this winter as well.  But people have been dying, in droves, throughout the hot summer months, from coronavirus, and most experts are predicting there will be even more deaths as we go through the first full winter of its existence.

We're entering that period now, and already numbers of infections and deaths are going up, rapidly, in countries across the world - including some that had been essentially Covid free for some weeks and months.  Clearly, unlike our friend The Donald confidently predicted to his admirers from a hot and sticky Florida back in April or May, the summer months have not killed off the virus, nor even slowed it down.  If anything, it seems to have strengthened it, since cases of infection and deaths are now spreading into all age groups, not just the old and those with pre-existing health conditions.  Viruses mutate.  Covid too.

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Governments the world over are struggling to find a balance between opening up struggling economies and the health of their citizens.  There are tightening restrictions.  Partial and local lockdowns.  Higher fines for flouting the "rules".  The blame game is ramping up: messrs Trump and Biden are fighting for the US Presidency largely on the performance (or lack thereof) of the government's handling of the pandemic: as I write there have been in excess of 8million infections and nearly 220,000 US deaths (and the President still insists he has handled the situation brilliantly and awards himself an A* Grade).  

In Poland, despite the evidence of ambulances queueing up round the block for hours outside hospitals in Warsaw that refuse to accept Covid patients (due to a lack of PPE, ventilators and staff trained to operate them), the government insists the situation is exaggerated and under control, and accuses doctors of "neglecting their duties".  In Britain, yet another new Three Tier system has been put in place to manage the crisis and help define prevention measures on an area by area basis, but the mayor of Greater Manchester is refusing to accept his city's categorization and refusing to adopt the mandated prevention measures unless the government makes additional funding available.  There has been pushback in France, Germany, Spain and elsewhere, mostly citing the ill effects on people's mental health due to continuing enforced isolation, and the closure of many businesses (of all sizes) due to contracted economies.

News bulletins and social media are awash with videos of crowded bars and street parties, people dancing and shouting and getting pissed, without a mask in sight and no sign of anything resembling social distancing measures being followed.  Interviews and Facebook posts are full of complaints about individual liberties being eroded or ignored.  The general thrust is if I catch Covid it's my choice and I'm happy to take the risk.  Ok, but the old person you pass it on to on the bus or in the check out queue probably doesn't feel the same way.  It's selfishness, pure and simple, and frankly it disgusts me - and not only because I'm in what is generally accepted to be a high risk group.

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It seems evident to me, as a layman prepared to do some research and think about things, that like it or not, we are indeed going into a Second Wave.  Most virologists and epidemiologists agree that this will be worse than the First Wave, meaning that millions more people are likely to get infected and die - the numbers as I write are in excess of 40 million infections and over 1.1 million deaths worldwide.  Admittedly, out of a global population of 8 billion odd, it's relatively small beer - but these are 40 million people infected and a million plus dead who ordinarily would still be here and healthy.  In less than one year....  Equally evident: it will be some months before ANY vaccines (outside of Russia) have been properly tested and released, and many more months before any real mass vaccination programs are launched as stocks need to be built up and distributed and prioritised. 

So economies will continue to be battered.  Businesses - small, medium and large, across countless industries and market sectors - will go bust, and no amount of government giveaways can change that.  Unemployment will rise massively, as will social security claims, placing more strain on government budgets already straining to breaking point.  As a simple example, on his election Boris Johnson pledged there would be no rises in personal taxation.  Through no fault of his own, he has had to dip into the government's coffers to provide tens of  billions of pounds in support of a UK economy already in recession (a recession that will likely deepen next year as the country completes its exit from EU with no trade deal).  Where does the money come from? Even grants are a form of debt on the government, that will need to be covered or repaid.  There are few option: more government borrowing from the money and bond markets (expensive....) or tax receipts being the most popular.  But if unemployment has gone up - as it will (it has already) - then by definition tax receipts will go down as social security payments go up. With a no tax increase pledge tying his hands, how does Johnson square the cirlce?

He is not alone, of course.  Every country, every government, every leader, is facing the same balancing act.  Britain's will not be the only economy going into recession: this is a global issue.  Even the richest nations - the US and China (the world's two largest economies), Germany and France, both EU powerhouses, the oil rich Gulf states, Japan, South Korea - are not going to be immune.

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Somehow, we HAVE to come together and find ways to live with this thing.  Changing work patterns and working from home, home schooling, furlough schemes and so on will not of themselves provide all of the answers, valuable though they clearly are as support tools.  We, as people, must make fundamental changes to the ways we think and live.  We must accept that this is a different world right now, and will remain so for a number of years.  Yes, vaccines will come and make huge differences to us all - but not yet.  Until then, WE have to take responsibility for our own lives and our own futures and act: clearly, in many cases we can't leave it to our leaders to lead because too many of them aren't prepared - or capable - of leading.

We need to ACCEPT that COVID19 is real, and not some internet conspiracy involving a mythical Deep State, Bill Gates and/or George Soros, aimed at some kind of world domination.  We need to accept too that viruses cannot be spread by 5G networks: they are organic and spread organically.  Blaming China, the CIA, Russia or any other convenient entity is a pointless exercise that will make no difference to managing the situation as ir is NOW: the blame game can come later,

We need to UNDERSTAND that businesses will go bust and jobs will be lost, possibly forever, tragic though that is.  People's livelihoods will disappear.  Throwing more government money at Greater Manchester, the entertainment industry, Virgin Atlantic airlines or any other "worthy cause" is not the answer long term.  We do not have a Magic Money Tree, no matter what old Jeremy Corbyn, Boris Johnson and others would have you believe.  At some point, probably sooner rather than later, the money will run out.

We must ACKNOWLEDGE that, with very few exceptions, our elected leaders are no more scientifically literate than we are, and stop accepting every utterance from Trump or Johnson, Hancock or Gove as gospel, the truth, because it undoubtedly isn't.  That's not to say that every utterance from the scientific commuity is true either: scientists are humans too, and may make mistakes like the rest of us.  But if 99% of them say the same thing, then it would probably be a good idea to do what they suggest.

Wear a MASK, properly.  That means so that it covers your mouth AND your nose - breath, and hence potentially the virus, can travel through your nasal passages as well as your throat.  Remember that masking will not necessarily stop you from catching Covid, but if you are unfortunate enough to pick it up somehow then a mask will make it harder to pass it on. Masking primarily protects other people: that's why doctors, nurses, dentists and other health professionals wear them all the time. 

Basic HYGIENE is also critical.  This is not only washing your hands all the time (but certainly every time you come indoors, and use sanitiser when offered entering shops and so on) but keeping surfaces clean and disinfected.  A recent study revealed that the virus can remain active on a work surface, door knob or whatever for several hours, not just a matter of minutes, so wiping everything down frequently will make a difference.  That includes your mobile phone, laptop or computer keyboard and mouse, tv remote - the lot.

Not only follow the science, but also whatever RULES are put in place in your locality, no matter how onerous they are.  The rules are not there to piss you off or make your life more difficult, but to protect everybody - including you.  It's nothing personal, because the government, local or national, that is introducing the rule does not know you from Adam, and they are just as inconvenienced by it as you are.  Live with it.  Halloween, Christmas, birthday parties and so on are not cancelled or illegal: they can still be celebrated but within your own direct family in your own home, NOT with your extended family. 

Similarly, be aware of TRAVEL RESTRICTIONS and follow them.  As someone who has spent most of the last 20 years jumping on and off planes and trains for work and pleasure, this has been a terrible year: my world has shrunk to the area surrounding my apartment block - perhaps a square kilometre, no more - and my apartment itself is small.  I have family in Britain I will not see this year, including a grandson I haven't met. I miss the whole journey experience, seeing new places and cultures.  Sure, I get cabin fever, some days terribly - but that's better than getting Covid.

It's been, and remains, the most extraordinary and diffcult situation for all of us, probably since the end of World War 2, certainly within my lifetime, and there is little prospect of it changing anytime soon.  But our species is resilient, and we will come though it eventually.  This is the Second Wave of infections.  There might well be a Third, maybe a Fourth -  I hope not a Fifth - before we get through the crisis. The world will be different, and the way we all live and work will be different too.  And the optimist in me says that will all be worthwhile.