Why the panic?

Much as I'm concerned about the COVID-19 outbreak, all this global panic seems a bit of an over-reaction to me.  I know, I know -  over a hundred thousand cases is a lot.  I know the number of deaths (currently just over 4000) seems a lot as well (as a percentage, it's 6% of all closed cases).  But taken across a global population in excess of 8 billion......well, it looks small beer really.  Many more people die from ordinary flu every year. Many many more people die from accidents every day.  Conflicts like those in Syria and Yemen, the migrant crises in Europe the Far East and, arguably, the US-Mexican border are just as fatal.

And yet - with COVID the world is in a state of panic.  Entire countries are in lockdown (Italy for instance).  Stock markets around the world are plummetting, in free-fall, worse than anything since the global financial crisis in 2008, and show no sign of slowing up their losses.  Airlines are going bust (flyBE), cutting flights and grounding fleets of planes (Lufthansa, Qantas, Ryanair etc etc) or flying empty planes between destinations simply to keep their take-off slots BA, and Virgin).  Nobody wants to travel.

Health services the world over are struggling to cope.  There are not enough testing kits to go around, never mind beds and isolation rooms to cope with demand.  People are being urged to work from home, to stay indoors, to go out only when necessary.  Schools, offices, art galleries and museums, universities are closed.  Sports events are either taking place in empty stadia or cancelled entirely.  The Tokyo Olympics (July) and the UEFA football championships (June) are in doubt.

There are food shortages.  No toilet rolls, disinfectant or bleach in major supermarkets.  People are panic buying everything in sight.  It's like Armageddon.

Only it isn't the end of the world.  It's an admittedly new and virulent illness that appeared only a few weeks ago, in a single Chinese city, and has "gone global" thanks to the ease with which people are now able to travel.  This has probably been aided by the initial lack of action in China that allowed it break out of that city, but since January the actions taken in the country have slowed down its spread.  Other countries are taking similar measures, of course on a smaller scale and arguably late in the day, to limit its spread further.

In China it seems to be slowing dramatically.  Governments are pouring money, directly and indirectly, into actions to develop vaccines quickly - but according to most reports it will take at least another year for them to become readily available - and beef up existing medical facilities like temporary isolation units to care for people unfortunate enough to catch the thing.  If the numbers from China (and in fairness they are disputed) are anything to go by, it may be that the situation will ease in a few weeks, provided we are all sensible and careful.

Wearing masks will not really help, because unless they are highly efficient and expensive ones like those is hazmat suits used by medical staff and emergency services in certain circumstances, they are not efficient enough to stop the microbes (or whatever agent - even that remains unclear) is spreading the illness.  The pictures we see every day on tv and in newspapers of people wandering around with face masks on are very dramatic but not to be seen as effective.

The WHO itself has said it's more important to refrain from physical contact and wash our hands thoroughly and regularly.  COVID seems to be killing older people, and especially those with pre-existing medical conditions - asthma, respiratory illness or just plain old age.  The vast majority of younger people seem to recover quickly enough.

It seems to me, living as I do in a country that so far has been relatively unscathed  - currently only 18 confirmed cases, 169 suspected and no deaths - but in a high risk group (not old, but over 60) that there has been an over-reaction.  With care and sensible precautions, there is no reason for me to be afraid, never mind panic stricken.  I trust the people who can do something about it - the scientists, the medical services, to a lesser extent governments - to be successful in containing this outbreak, nasty as it undoubtedly is.  This time next year, I suspect we will look back on this whole affair with relief and a certain amount of embarrassment that we reacted in the way we did, then dig out the last of the panic bought emergency stockpiled toilet rolls.......

Of course, I could be completely wrong.

ADDENDUM: - 11/3/20:  Well, a day later and panic buying has now hit where I live.  I've just strolled over to my local LeClerc supermarket for eggs, bread, fruit and veg on a lovely sunny day.  The place is packed, with shelves rapidly emptying.  Bottled water and tinned foods, especially fish and vegetables, were particularly popular.  Plenty of toilet rolls still, though.......  Clearly, this thing is changing the way we shop, at least.