Wednesday, 22 April 2020

Lockdown Living







LOCKDOWN

NOUN:

A security measure in which those inside a building or area are required to remain confined in it for a time.

- English definition, Courtesy: Collins English Dictionary, Online Edition


Like most of us, probably, I had only come across the word in shoddy American tv shows and movies, typically accompanied by much gunfire and explosions, usually with Bruce Willis or Arnold Schwarzenegger in the thick of it.  Then along came COVID-19.  Suddenly, most of the world found itself in lockdown – and without a shot being fired.  The world started to change before our eyes, in ways most of us had never believed possible.

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People and governments reacted in different ways.  In Europe, Italy and Spain were a bit caught out and hence have suffered the worst attrition.  Britain, as usual, reacted late and arguably this cost unnecessary lives, as much as anything because the government seems to have failed in providing an already hard pressed NHS with sufficient ventilators, masks and other personal protection stuff to both staff and patients, and has also been somewhat tardy in testing.  It hasn’t been helpful that the PM has spent time in Intensive Care after catching COVID himself, and his enforced absence has shown for all who care to open their eyes the paucity of ability in his Government.  The phrase about headless chickens springs to mind.  I’m sure people – especially within the NHS - have done their best, but it hasn’t been enough to prevent a hundred thousand confirmed cases and getting on for twenty thousand deaths in a few short weeks.  Tragic.

Elsewhere, Trump has predictably gone his own sweet way, initially blaming it all on a Chinese conspiracy, then mystifyingly the EU, then saying it would all be over in a couple of weeks, then back at work by Easter…...and all the time marking himself 10 out of 10 for his handling of the crisis.  And the number of cases has mounted and the number of deaths multiplied, and his scientific and medical advisors have struggled to contradict the man and convince people to follow their professional advice rather Trump’s “hunches”.  His supporters, inevitably and again mystifyingly, have lapped it up, and are as I write demonstrating in a number of states – all of which have Democrat Governers – against the lockdown measures imposed, citing loss of freedom and jobs as the economy tanks, and demanding an immediate return to normality.  The man himself, of course, supports and encourages them through a daily barrage of tweets. Tragic? Yes, and insanity.

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And what of Poland?

The government actually acted very quickly.  Borders were closed, with all motorway crossings manned by police turning back non-Poles (unless driving trucks of goods destined for the Polish market) and testing everyone else.  Any hint of a temperature resulted in 14 days quarantine.  Airports across the country were closed, and all flights grounded except for repatriation flights. International train services were also stopped. It’s been eerie: I live quite close to the main airport so there is always aircraft noise.  I also have a little cottage on a development bordering the airport, and I visited a couple of days later.  Typically there is a take off or landing every four or five minutes – during my two hours there I counted two take offs and no landings.  It’s been like that, or quieter, ever since.

The lockdown terms have been quite strict, with only vital trips outside allowed.  Public transport is still running, but bus drivers are only allowed to take on half the people – so a 40 seat bus is now “full” with 20 passengers.  Working from home, if at all, is widespread. Small shops remain open, and supermarkets, but the malls are closed.  The shops themselves, from day 2, have been restricted to allowing only customers in a multiple of 4 per till – so if there are 4 tills and only 2 are open then only 8 customers are allowed in.  Staff man the doors and only allow customers in when someone else leaves, strictly one to one.  There is hand sanitizer and disposal gloves provided just inside the entrance – use of both is mandatory.  All staff wear masks, as do most customers, and there are tapes on the floor by each till to guide social distancing.

It works.  The vast majority of people happily follow the rules, so the numbers here are really very good – currently there have been 10,034 confirmed cases and only 404 dead  and that’s out of a population of just under 38million (Source: Google). Most of them have been in the area around Warsaw, the most populous part of the country.  There is a caveat: many people believe the government is under-reporting and the actual numbers may be several times higher: but even if that is the case they compare very favourably with the rest of Europe (indeed, the World….).  No doubt “true” figures will surface one day, when this is all over.

Certainly, there is excellent communication.  Whenever there is a change in regulations an SMS message is sent to every Polish mobile a day or so in advance, in both Polish and English, explaining everything.  There is also a tentative exit strategy, announced over the weekend, that will gradually open stores, places of worship, bars and restaurants and allow limited gatherings and sporting events, but there are no dates set apart from Phase 1, effective this Monday, that re-opened parks and forest trails (there are many around the city), and allow us to go outside for more reasons – exercise and cycling are now possible, so I’m off for a bike ride through Kabaty Forest tomorrow. 

But social distancing remains in force, and masks must still be worn outside until a vaccine is readily available – and this, said the notice, may not be until next year.  “Masks are the new normal” it said.

Of course, there have been the odd instance of people stretching matters.  I heard a radio news report recently about a guy who went out to buy essential supplies one evening – a bottle of vodka.  He drank it all on the way home and fell asleep on a bench outside his apartment block, where he was woken up some time later by the police.  They issued a ticket for the appropriate fine for going outside on a non-essential trip – PLN30,000 (at today’s rates, close tp GBP6,000).  Expensive drink – and if the fine isn’t paid he’s looking at a 6 month prison sentence.  No idea how that one ended up – there has been no follow up so I guess he paid it.  Either that, or the story was an excellent wind-up.

The worst abuse happened over Easter, an important time where all Poles visit the local cemeteries to pay their respects to parents and other departed family members, lay flowers and light candles – it’s a lovely tradition that this year was forbidden by the lockdown.  But there are always people who believe they are above the law, and Jaroslaw Kaczynski, the leader of the governing Law and Justice Party (you see the irony there?) proved it by heading off to Warsaw’s main cemetery to visit his parents’ grave – in a black limousine and accompanied by a full security detail of perhaps a dozen armed guards.  No masks.  No social distancing.  And in full view of a media scrum including tv cameras from all the main networks, who I assume had all received a tip-off from someone. There is a presidential election in May: he is not standing but his party’s nomine is – or at least, was – clear favourite to win.  To judge by the outrage in the press and on social media this crass error of judgement is quite likely to come back and bite his arse very hard.  And quite right too.

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So – living in lockdown.  How has it been?

Well, by what I’ve seen and heard from my kids and relatives back home, not too bad provided you find ways of avoiding boredom.  Thank God for Netflix, Disney TV, YouTube, Zoom and so on….windows on the world and a release.  My sister has been happily working in her garden, in the better weather, pruning the roses, trimming hedges and feeding the birds.  My eldest son has spent much time in his garden playing with the kids, building useful things like wooden sun loungers, and gardening himself.  Another son has likewise enjoyed garden and Disney time with his kids.  They’re both getting by and looking forward to a return to work at some point.

A garden would be great, if for nothing else than extra space.  I live in a relatively small fifth floor flat, two bedrooms, bathroom and combined lounge/kitchen/diner with a small balcony – so space is at a bit of a premium.  The place is full of love and laughter, and we want for nothing in terms of food and stuff to amuse ourselves – it’s great, and I’m very happy with my life here.  But lockdown has shown that we really do need a bit more elbow room.  We’re working on it.

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Peace and quiet and a bit of personal space can be hard to find.  When the kids are doing their schoolwork it can get a bit tricky.  Like all schools, lessons are being conducted online using Microsoft Teams and by-and-large it works well.  My two are more fortunate than some of their classmates in having their own kit – one has a desktop computer with all the gaming gear (microphone and head set, big monitor) while the other her own laptop.  Sharing a room means where lessons overlap, milady has to decamp to the big room and set up on the dining room table – which is fine, my wife and I are happy to eat from the settee where my wife is also doing her own online stuff.  Meanwhile, as now, I tend to sprawl on the bed balancing my old Lenovo on my knees.  Sometimes, for a change, I use the window ledge (it’s broad enough and stone, so very solid) but less than ideal and gives me backache.  But we manage ok.

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Distractions abound.  My kids are both avid YouTubers and gamers, so getting them away from those apps and focused on their schoolwork is challenging.  Yelling competitions are not unheard of.  By and large the tv stays off until their work is done – around lunchtime – after which it goes on for the afternoon programming that tends to be old soap reruns or DIY/home search stuff – some of those are ok, and show some nice décor ideas we could use when we eventually move.

At this point, too, the online gaming starts and things can get even louder: can anyone explain why people, kids especially, tend to communicate at full volume when they’re playing an online game with friends, or making a mobile phone call?  I know I’m as guilty as the next person! 

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Then food.

My missus is a fantastic cook, and it shows on my waistline. Last year I worked hard at exercise, much walking and cycling, and managed to drop nearly 8 kilos between May and October – and felt much fitter and healthier for it.  I managed to remain stable through the winter, and aim to drop more this summer – ideally my target is to get below 90 kilos, something I haven’t managed to do for at least 10 years.  At my age, with dodgy knees and hips, I figure that would be good for me.

I weighed myself last week, for the first time since lockdown started.  Unless the scales have seized up from a lack of use over the past 6 months (unlikely….) I have, in the space of four weeks, put back on all the weight I lost last summer, plus a bit more. Bugger.

At least, as from this week, I can get out and about again, but it means I have to go back and do it all over again and my sub-90 target is further away than ever.

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I read reports every day of the crisis in Britain and elsewhere caused by the lack of surgical masks and PPE kit, and we are also suffering. But at least in the area of masks – not so much.  People increasingly make their own.

It’s not so difficult, and all the women’s magazines, breakfast tv shows and Facebook are awash with tutorials. Patterns are readily available and shared between friends, and since most homes seem to contain a sewing machine people the length and breadth of Poland are using them to churn out facemasks for family and friends.  My wife has made a whole stock of them for us to use, in a variety of designs – stars & stripes, camouflage pattern, blue and red paisley, spotted….. So far she’s used old bandanas and scarves hidden away in drawers for the basic mask, heavy duty elastic bands for the ears, and vacuum cleaner filters or j-cloths for the filters, and they are adequate.  Now most haberdashers here are selling special filter material in rolls and of course they also sell normal elastic (as you would use in repairing your kid’s PE shorts for instance).  She and my daughter have made them for friends and family as well, and we have plenty of materials left to do more as and when needed.  And very fetching they look too.

It’s also interesting the way people have accepted the need to wear masks, I think.  I had seen pictures – as I’m sure we all have – of people in places like Tokyo and Hong Kong and other Asian cities wearing them as a matter of course for years.  Walk down any street in Rome or Paris, London or New York, and you were guaranteed to see coach loads of middle aged Chinese and Japanese tourists wearing the things.  I always found it quite amusing, and felt I would never wear one no matter how smoggy the atmosphere – I would look an idiot.  Now?  I step out to take the trash out and put on a mask (and disposable plastic gloves) as a matter of course.  The streets are full of people wearing them and you tend to look more at people who aren’t.  The masks are part of normality now, and as I wrote earlier will remain so in Poland for the foreseeable future.  It no longer looks like something out of an apocolyptic movie, it’s simply life.

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There have been unexpected gains.

Most notably, the traffic is so much lighter.  My block is on one of the main roads from the
southern edge of Warsaw into the centre, so traffic is always heavy.  My bedroom overlooks the road, and despite double glazing there is a constant roar and hum of cars and buses from about 5 a.m. until midnight-ish.  I’ve lived here for 15 years so I should be used to it, but no: I’ve always been a light sleeper (at least since fatherhood forty years ago) and it seems to get worse as I get older.  Insomnia really is a bitch.

Anyway, lockdown has pushed the day’s traffic start back half an hour or so,but it makes no difference to me: I still wake about 5.  And there is certainly less traffic on the road.  Before lockdown, there would be a traffic jam outside more or less all day in one direction or the other, and during the rush hours both ways.  Not so now: the picture above was taken from my bedroom during the second week of lockdown, at the height of the afternoon rush hour, when normally traffic would be bumper to bumper and stationary outside and all the parking places occupied.  See the difference!

The affect of this is that Warsaw, one of the most polluted cities in Poland – if not THE worst – now has cleaner air.  Every evening, after the weather forecast, the TVN bulletin adds a smog forecast, and the city invariably has a higher rating than anywhere except perhaps Katowice, down in the coal country to the south. Step out onto the balcony some nights and you can smell and taste the stuff. 

Now it’s better.  The air quality is better, the haze that so often hangs over the neighbourhood is gone. Whether it will last beyond lockdown is open to debate, but if more people adopt the “new norm” and work from home, or leave the car at home in favour of public transport, then it could be a lasting difference and a bit of a COVID Bonus.  I’m usually an optimist, so I have to say I hope that is exactly what will happen – but the realist (or cynic) in me somehow doubts it.  Of course, the longer this situation goes on, the more deep seated such changes are likely to become, so there is some hope. 

It’s not only here in Warsaw, either.  Cities and indeed countries the world over are showing similar decreases in pollution levels, and there have been a number of interesting images published by NASA showing before and after COVID hit major polluters and the difference is striking.  Given the widely accepted need to reduce CO2 levels drastically and soon to avoid calamitous climate change, COVID is actually giving a new hope to activists.  But the changes need to become permanent, and the appetite for change post lockdown remains a big imponderable.

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Shopping, despite the queueing outside the door, the hand sanitising and gloves, is easier because the stores are emptier.  The aisles are no longer awash with shopping trolleys going every which way, no traffic jams approaching checkout.  Because it’s easier for staff to monitor the stock and refill as soon a product runs a bit low, there are few empty shelves – and as far as I know no shortages or panic buying after the initial couple of days (and as I saw myself in LeClerc down the road that was nowhere near as bad here as reported elsewhere).  Plenty of toilet rolls.  Lots of bottled water.  Stacks of tinned foods.  Shelves full of freshly baked bread.  It’s almost a pleasure to go to my local Biedronka now.

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So lockdown is ok.  It’s not been easy, but certainly not boring – but I do feel the need to get out more and more.  Now the weather is improving, my balcony beckons, as does my bike, and with this week’s rule relaxation I can do something about that.  It’s given me the chance to do a lot of reading and writing (though not as much as I had planned – but that’s a whole other story….).  And it’s brilliant to spend this time together with my family.  That said, I can’t wait to be able to hop on a Wizzair to Luton and see my English family again.  It’s been too long already….

As far as Poland is concerned, it seems to have made a big difference, and I think that is mainly because the population seems to have embraced the need in the way others haven’t.  I can see it lasting for a good bit longer yet – calls to get back to normal quickly seem to me way too premature.  How long?  Who knows, really, but I would be surprised and a tad concerned if the measures were all removed much before Christmas.  I can’t see much prospect of vaccine availability until this time next year, for a start….

But we shall see…...in the meantime, have fun in your own lockdown, and whatever you’re doing and wherever you are…..

………..Stay safe.

Tuesday, 7 April 2020

The NHS and football - can Coronavirus make a difference?



There's been a lot written in the press and various chatrooms relating to footballers - particulary the highly paid "superstars" of the Premiership - and their response (or lack of) to the Coronavirus epidemic.  It's part of a wider narrative about how the sport has acted so far, when play has been forced to a standstill so close to season's end.

Let's take the second bit first.  It seems to me with the virus still raging across the world, talking of being able to re-start the season in May and finishing it by mid-summer, using the windows offered by UEFA's pragmatic decision to suspend the Champions League and Europa League competitions indefinitely and move the scheduled international Euro 2020 finals into 2021 to do so, is a little over-optimistic.  There is still so much medical scientists and the WHO still do not know about the virus - for instance whether there could be a second outbreak in Asia (which is at present pretty stable) or elsewhere that could again spread globally if travel restrictions are relaxed too soon.  There is still no sign of a vaccine yet (despite what certain peole seem to think, the malaria drug hydroxychloroquine is not currently approved against COVID), and probably won't be for several months.  There is even argument going on in some places as to whether social distancing, self-isolation and working from home are making an appreciable difference to the spread of the virus.  Masks?  Depending where you get your news from, they're either very good prevention or practically useless.  The same goes for basic hygiene, despite the advice of every health advice bulletin, whether by governments or the WHO. 

It seems ridiculous to risk more lives simply out of a desperation to finish a few games of football, probably behind closed doors, to maximise prize money perhaps as part compensation for lost gate revenue.  It puts the Prem at odds with the FA, that has suspended all competitions below National League level, effectively ending the season now and voiding results, and the Football League, that has taken a similar stance as the FA but remains hopeful of continuing at some point.  National League clubs are broadly in favour of stopping now and voiding the season, but are taking further legal advice.

Clearly, there is no simple answer that will satisfy everybody.  Taking non-league as an example, a letter has been presented to the FA by a delegation of grass roots clubs asking to continue - noticably the clubs that are against an early end are the ones who may miss out on promotion and the most vocal in favour of scrapping the season are those in danger of relegation.  I can understand where they're coming from, but these are not ordinary circumstances - not by a long chalk. 

My own view is that the season should be scrapped now.  From the Prem right the way down.  No prizes awarded - no league champions, no promotion, no relegation.  Prize money to be distributed based on league position as of the date of suspension.  That's straightforward enough, and sorry Barrow (a country mile ahead of everyone else in the National League and nailed-on certainties for promotion to the EFL before this happened), and lucky you Stevenage, 10 points adrift at the bottom of League 2 and bound to replace Barrow in non-League.  C'est la vie.

But to take it further: next season should kick off as normal (health restrictions permitting), but with all teams starting with the SAME playing squad as this season - no player movements in or out for any club, and no summer transfer window.  A level playing field - to prevent, say, Man City spending another billion quid on players to close the gap on unlucky Liverpool.  The problem with this idea seems to me the issue of players whose contracts expire at the end of this season - what of them?  Should replacements be allowed or contracts extended?  The lower down the leagues you go, the bigger that issue becomes - in non-league most players are on yearly contracts, and that "year" is only 44 weeks.  They are not rolling contracts, and certainly not the multi-year deals prevalent in the game's upper echelons.  Most clubs from National League down lose the majority of their squads at the end of May and have to re-build every season.  How practical it is to consider offering new contracts to an entire playing staff at every club, or even if the players would agree to signing, is a fiendiishly difficult one, especially for the poorer part-time clubs. 

But back to my original question, about Prem players and their contribution: I think a good many of them are doing something already, as far as their clubs allow them too.  I'm sure all of them would happily contribute financially in some way at the very least.  It seems to me that clubs, perhaps understandably, want to protect their major assets, agents (who increasingly seem to run the lives of their client players) are even more reluctant since they have a vested in the players' market valuations (they would lose their 10% cut on any transfers that are no doubt being set up this very second), and the PFA, the union that is supposed to act on the players' behalf seem reluctant or unable to provide guidance to its members.  The result is a complete mess, with mega rich clubs like Spurs and Liverpool laying off part time match day staff and refusing to consider pay deferrals for high earners - in contrast to say Barcelona where management and players, Messi included, have accepted temporary pay cuts of 70% of salary to protect their part-time match day staff and provide additional funding to hard pressed Spanish health services.    I see no good reason why say Chelsea or Manchester United should not do something similar.

Government demands that players should be forced to do something are at best unhelpful.  Jordan Henderson, the Liverpool captain, has reportedly been working hard with the other club captains to put a scheme of some kind together that will provide additional funding to the NHS but is apparently having problems with clubs and the PFA providing only lukewarm support.  The PFA even stated that to apply a pay cut would "decrease the amount of tax paid that goes indirectly to the NHS so reduce their funding".  Gordon Taylor, the PFA's leader, is picking up a quarter of million a year (despite announcing he was retiring a couple of years ago), and his solution is to get "all stakeholders - players, clubs, the tv companies, agents....around a table to discuss it....and find a mutually agreeable solution". 

What nonsense!  The money is needed now, to provide additional safety equipment, oxygen supplies, ventilators and a hundred and one other things that are deperately needed for the NHS to cope with the crisis COVID is placing on the organisation.  If the idiot Taylor gets his way the discussions will STILL be going on this time next year - and I dread to think how many NHS staff, never mind their patients, will have died in that time.

I can't see why Henderson and his felow captains can't simply do a weekly whip-round of their players, collect the money that way and pass it on their local hospitals without needing  the club, agents and PFA to sanction it.  All the players know how critical the NHS is, all support it and all use it, the same as everyone else - I have no doubt the vast majority would be happy to dip into their bulging bank accounts and pay over ten grand a week each (the average salary is apparently something like seventy grand a week) in this way.  It's their money, surely, to spend as they see fit.  I would be suprised if many of them were not doing something similar privately in any case, simply not publiciising it.

Finally: it seems to me that football itself in England needs shaking up.  It seems desperately unfair that the 20 clubs in the Prem, with all their billions in tv and prize money, their billionaire owners (whether individuals or consortia), their players on contracts bringing in millions a year - not counting endorsements and bonuses - do nothing to help maintain and grow the grass roots game.  The smaller clubs all have a hand-to-mouth existence, surviving on gates in the hundreds, woth players on 44 week contracts (if any at all) and are extremely lucky to break even at the end of the season, never mind turn a profit.  The staff are frequently unpaid volunteers, making the club the lifeblood of their local community in a way that ALL clubs should be but often at the top table aren't - or at least these top clubs are more focused on their global following rather than the kid who lives two streets away and dreams of playing for them one day.

In my view there should be a contingency fund of some kind set up specifically to provide support to non-league clubs - that is from the National League down.  Contributions should be made by all clubs in the Prem, the Championship and Leagues 1 and 2, on a sliding scale based on league position (hence linked to prize money), with those clubs in European competition paying an additonal sum based on their UEFA prize money (paid per round and known in advance).  Additional funds could be taken as a percentage of gate receipts (since admission prices are known before games, often before the season starts, and the number of people admitted is known before the end of a game, this is a simple calculation to make).  The fund could be managed either by FA (that is responsible for the non-league pyramid that would benefit), probably in conjunction with some kind of fund administration company, or by a separate body set up specifically for the purpose. 

Let's go the whole hog: impose a limit on the value of a player's contract (no more £100,000 a week deals for a reserve or bench warmer, thank you very much!) and hence on agent's fees - in fact, peg those fees at no more than 2% of the player's agreed base salary (none of these 10% plus add on's crap), payable only on completion of the player's contract term.

The game, at least at the very top level, in England is broken.  Now is a good opportunity to start fixing it.

Wow! A full year.....

  ....since I last posted something on here. I should be thoroughly ashamed and give myself forty lashes for laziness. But I won't.  Ess...